How many 'diplomatic allies' will ROC (Taiwan) lose in the period 2024-2027?
2
345Ṁ128
2028
10%
1
11%
2
10%
3
10%
4
10%
5
8%
6
6%
7
6%
8
6%
9
6%
10
6%
11
6%
12
6%
13

This period almost perfectly maps onto the time between the 2024 and 2028 elections.

A diplomatic ally is a country that has diplomatic relations with ROC (Taiwan)

Since 1949, PRC (China) has been peeling off countries that recognise ROC (Taiwan).

Since 2008, no countries have flipped back from PRC to ROC.

If this happens in the next four years, it will not count as negative one for the purposes of this market.

If countries flip to recognise ROC and then flip back to PRC, they would count for this market.

If this happens enough to raise the correct answer to this market higher than 13, this market will resolve to 13.

Taiwan started 2024 with 13 diplomatic allies.

So far ROC (Taiwan) has lost:

Nauru

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Taiwan
China Taiwan potential conflict
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