Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te attends the inauguration mass of the next Pope. Attendance is defined as Lai Ching-te being physically present at the mass. If he does not attend, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Papal inaugurations are significant events attended by numerous international dignitaries. For instance, during Pope Francis's inauguration in 2013, official delegations from 132 states and various religious groups were present. Notably, Taiwan's then-President Ma Ying-jeou attended.

The Vatican City maintains diplomatic relations with the R.O.C. (Taiwan) and not the P.R.C.

Given the sensitive nature of Taiwan's international presence and China's opposition to its participation in global events, President Lai's attendance at a future papal inauguration could be influenced by diplomatic considerations and potential pressure from China.