Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, there is credible evidence that Israeli Special Forces have conducted an attack on Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site. Acceptable sources for verification include:

• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports: Official statements or reports confirming such an attack.

• Major news outlets: Reports from reputable organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC.

• Official statements: Declarations from the Israeli government or military confirming the operation.

If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is an underground uranium enrichment facility located near Qom, Iran. Due to its deep underground construction and fortifications, it presents a significant challenge for military operations. In June 2025, Israel launched a series of airstrikes targeting various Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow. Reports indicate that while above-ground structures at Fordow sustained limited damage, the underground facilities remained largely intact. (ft.com)