Will China report more births in 2024 than in 2023?
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34
4.3k
2025
54%
chance

China reported 9.02 million births in 2023

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Unfortunate that there aren't more people betting here, but I guess that explains why the number was so low.
I don't feel comfortable betting this above 50% but my odds are still around 65%. Every year that government efforts to raise birth rates fail, implies they'll feel like doing something big the next year (unless 4 years pass, at that point that clearly indicates that we aren't going to see results, but right now it's been only <2 years since the outbreak and lockdowns).

The regime has incentives to fix the birth rate problem because they care a ton about FDI in the near term. IDK how the export priority affects this, but long-term growth prospects boost FDI in the near-term.

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