Fascinated by the question of China's population growth over the coming decades. They might the have state capacity to pull off a "2.1 Children policy". But no idea about the delta between any two given years.

Unfortunate that there aren't more people betting here, but I guess that explains why the number was so low.
I don't feel comfortable betting this above 50% but my odds are still around 65%. Every year that government efforts to raise birth rates fail, implies they'll feel like doing something big the next year (unless 4 years pass, at that point that clearly indicates that we aren't going to see results, but right now it's been only <2 years since the outbreak and lockdowns).

The regime has incentives to fix the birth rate problem because they care a ton about FDI in the near term. IDK how the export priority affects this, but long-term growth prospects boost FDI in the near-term.