Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, there is credible evidence from reputable sources indicating that China has transferred Xi'an H-6 bombers to Russia. Acceptable evidence includes official government statements, defense industry reports, or coverage from established news organizations. If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The Xi'an H-6 is a Chinese strategic bomber, originally developed from the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16. Since its introduction in the 1960s, the H-6 has undergone multiple upgrades, with variants like the H-6K and H-6N enhancing its capabilities. The H-6K features advanced avionics and the ability to carry cruise missiles, while the H-6N is capable of aerial refueling and carrying air-launched ballistic missiles. (en.wikipedia.org)

China and Russia have a history of military cooperation, including joint exercises and arms sales. Notably, in July 2024, Chinese H-6 bombers and Russian Tu-95 bombers conducted a joint patrol near Alaska, demonstrating their strategic partnership. (csis.org)

Considerations

While China has been a significant importer of Russian military technology, including aircraft engines, there is limited precedent for China exporting major combat aircraft like the H-6 bomber to Russia. Additionally, both nations have been focusing on developing their indigenous military capabilities, which may influence decisions regarding such transfers.