https://x.com/RyanFedasiuk/status/2003634067997409613?s=20

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China launches nine or more aircraft carriers by December 31, 2035. "Launch" is defined as the vessel having its official launch ceremony, not the date of the dry dock flooding or when it is commissioned into service. Resolution will be verified through official Chinese state media announcements.

Background

As of 2025, China has three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian. A fourth carrier, the Type 004, has been under construction since 2024 and is expected to feature nuclear propulsion. A Type 003A is rumoured to be under construction in Shanghai. The 2025 China Military Power Report stated or the first time that the PLAN intends to operate nine aircraft carriers by 2035 — a 50% increase over often-cited estimate of six by that timeframe, according to Ryan Fedasiuk

Considerations

Reaching nine carriers by 2035 would require China to launch approximately one new carrier every 1.5 years for the next decade, significantly exceeding the pace of its current program. Fielding four modern carriers before 2035 is considered challenging, if not impossible, by some analysts. Additionally, China's robust shipbuilding industry will probably be unable to replace aging carriers with more modern ones, suggesting resource constraints that could limit expansion beyond stated goals.