Resolution Criteria

China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian. This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.

"Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony. Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).

Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.

Background

A fourth carrier, currently called "Type 004" and thought to feature nuclear propulsion, has been under construction since 2024. In October 2025, satellite imagery of the Dalian Shipyard showed the first stages of keel-laying and hull construction for the supposed Type 004 carrier.

China hoped to complete the carrier by the late 2020s. However, China plans to field a force of nine aircraft carriers by 2035, with the PLAN aiming to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035 for a total of nine.

Considerations

The Type 004 is expected to be nuclear-powered, which would disqualify it from this market. If China builds a conventional (non-nuclear) fourth carrier instead, that would resolve YES. The timeline is tight—commissioning a conventional carrier before 2030 would require completion within approximately 4-5 years from current construction status, which is feasible given China's shipbuilding pace but not guaranteed.