Will a typhoon make landfall in Taiwan before the end of 2024?

Ṁ390Ṁ12k

resolved Sep 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

For simplicity, I am defining Taiwan as the main island not any of the outer islands.

Landfall:

The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL

A typhoon has not made landfall in Taiwan since 2019. Prior to this at least one made landfall every year*.

*https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-taiwan-typhoon-feature-idUSKBN28W00D

Taiwan may face fewer typhoons - but harsher drought - as planet warms

When Typhoon Morakot hit indigenous villages in Taiwan's mountains 11 years ago, former army officer Chen Cheng-nan was stunned at the devastation.

Market context

Weather

Taiwan

2023 Pacific typhoon season

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predictedNO

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-a-typhoon-make-landfall-in-tai-de5137f69e26?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Will a typhoon make landfall in Taiwan in 2024?

50% chance. For simplicity, I am defining Taiwan as the main island not any of the outer islands. Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL Typhoon Haikui made landfall in Taiwan in 2023 and it was the first to do so since 2019

https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202309030006

@JoshuaWilkes Haikui made landfall in Taitung. I believe this means a YES resolution.

Typhoon Haikui makes landfall in Taitung - Focus Taiwan

Taipei, Sept. 3 (CNA) Typhoon Haikui made landfall at around 3 p.m. Sunday in Taitung County near the boundary of Chenggong and Donghe townships, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB).

predictedNO

@SarkanyVar certainly looks like it! I'll just wait until we have a few collaborating reports since it's technically possible Focus Taiwan hasn't used the strict meteorological definition

predictedNO

@JoshuaWilkes Just to reassure the market, I fully anticipate resolving this YES within hours

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes No problem, take your time! Always good to have multiple sources agreeing before resolution :)

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes By the way, if you are in Taiwan, stay safe!

predictedYES

More from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan:

predictedNO

@SarkanyVar It's very rainy!

@JoshuaWilkes What sources are you waiting for confirmation from?

predictedNO

@june I just wanted to hear it from multiple sources, but I think we are there now ;)

predictedNO

Taiwan issues land warning for Typhoon Haikui - Focus Taiwan

Taipei, Sept. 2 (CNA) The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued a land warning for Typhoon Haikui at 11:30 a.m. Saturday, predicting that the storm's strength will increase as it moves closer to Taiwan.

predictedNO

It's drifting south....

https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202309020003

predictedYES

Uh oh... Still a lot of uncertainty as to how strong it will be, though. HAFS really make this storm explode. Pressure sitting relatively low on all the deterministic models - could be hinting at something.