If Argentina attempts to invade the Falkland Islands before 2040, will it succeed?
Basic
3
Ṁ30
2040
40%
chance

Resolves YES on British media consensus that Argentina seized and held the Falkland Islands for at least a week.

Resolves NO on British media consensus that Argentina attempted to invade and failed, even if that attempt foundered before soldiers left Argentinian airspace.

Otherwise resolves NA

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Ṁ1,000
and
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