Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here). Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline. This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory. I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over. The only time I can imagine I'd resolve this N/A is if the Falklands ceased to exist somehow (earthquake? idk), but probably other situations exist.
I will not bet in this market.
We've got one guy who's surprisingly optimistic about this. @JeffersonMao want to enlighten the rest of us? I'm personally suspecting this is a bet on Britain melting down enough that it can no longer retain its farflung possessions. At least, that's the only theory I see that makes sense, anyway.
I think this is gonna be my default comment on all Falklands markets...
There's nothing to "negotiate" about. The Argies asked the British for permission the time they first settled; later they made a military gamble and lost; and then the islanders voted 1513-3 for the status quo.
The Argies' only claim is that, once they genocided the natives of Patagonia and stole their lands, the islands became their neighbors. We Brazilians are also their neighbors and we don't claim their country is ours just because of that.
If we ever get their country, we'll have bought it fair and square, since they're the Suicide Squad of the economy - they keep making their country cheaper and cheaper, so at some point we'll get the deed to the whole thing as change when we buy an alfajor for a ghjkillion pesos.