Resolution Criteria
This market resolves based on two independent events occurring during 2026:
Alberta Referendum: Resolves YES if Alberta holds a referendum on provincial separation from Canada in 2026.
King Charles III US Visit: Resolves YES if King Charles III visits the United States in 2026.
Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Elections Alberta and Buckingham Palace/official UK government sources.
Background
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced in May 2025 that she would hold a referendum on provincial separation in 2026 if citizens gather the required signatures on a petition. Elections Alberta approved the petition application on December 22, 2025.
King Charles and Queen Camilla are slated to make a state visit to Washington DC to mark the 250th anniversary of independence of the United States.
Considerations
The Alberta referendum is contingent on successful signature collection by May 2, 2026. While organizers report strong turnout at signing events, they have not publicly disclosed exact signature counts. The referendum outcome itself is separate from whether it occurs.
Some British MPs have urged King Charles to cancel his reported state visit if President Trump does not back off from threats to place tariffs on nations opposing his push to obtain Greenland. However, there are currently no plans to deviate from anything written in the Buckingham Palace diary.
This description was generated by AI.
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