At the end of 2023 (some time on December 31st PST), in a Safari incognito window, I will search 'manifold' (no quotes). If a Manifold Markets link is one of the first 25 links (not including links marked as sponsored) in the main-search result section, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.
Currently manifold.markets is the 38th link when searched.
What counts as a main-search result?
I think this is best illustrated with a jankily drawn diagram! If after seeing this diagram, confusion remains, ask a question in the comments!
If Google substantially changes in such a way that the resolution criteria no longer make sense, I will resolve to the best of my ability based on the spirit of the market (feel free to ask hypotheticals to better understand what that would mean).
Due to the possibility of a subjective resolution, I will not purchase any shares in this market.
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@IsaacKing For me it's currently 3rd (!) in Safari private browsing and 4th in Chrome Private browsing
Just counted 21st! First time I’ve observed sub-25. I’m kinda convinced now that this is actually somewhat of a legit proxy for “how popular Manifold is,” and kinda wonder if it was higher at the peak of the LK-99 buzz
Created a post which I’ll update sporadically for what rank this site is under these market rules! https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-search-position-over-time. Currently it is 114th!
@Primer Ooh, nifty question! I think that 0 seems like the most reasonable option to me, since I wouldn’t call a carousel like that a main search result. I would say a similar thing for a news panel as well, no links from a Google news panel count either.
@JoshuaB In some cases (recipies for example), a third place in a carousel will generate about as much clicks as a first place in the main results. I would agree that isn't the case here, so thanks for the clarification!