Will Manifold Markets be in the top 25 Google Search results for “Manifold" at the end of 2023?

closes Jan 1, 2024

74%

chance

ALL

At the end of 2023, in an incognito window, I will search 'manifold' (no quotes). If a Manifold Markets link is one of the first 25 links (not including links marked as sponsored) in the main-search result section, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.

Currently manifold.markets is the 38th link when searched.

What counts as a main-search result?

I think this is best illustrated with a jankily drawn diagram! If after seeing this diagram, confusion remains, ask a question in the comments!

If Google substantially changes in such a way that the resolution criteria no longer make sense, I will resolve to the best of my ability based on the spirit of the market (feel free to ask hypotheticals to better understand what that would mean).

Due to the possibility of a subjective resolution, I will not purchase any shares in this market.

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Primer

If Google puts some sort of carousel widget among the results where it shows e.g. 5 Twitter results containing "manifold", does this count as 0, 1, or 5?

Joshua

@Primer Ooh, nifty question! I think that 0 seems like the most reasonable option to me, since I wouldn’t call a carousel like that a main search result. I would say a similar thing for a news panel as well, no links from a Google news panel count either.

Primerbought Ṁ10 of YES

@JoshuaB In some cases (recipies for example), a third place in a carousel will generate about as much clicks as a first place in the main results. I would agree that isn't the case here, so thanks for the clarification!