What percentage of games will Joshua win in the linked market?
What percentage of games will Joshua win in the linked market?
1
50Ṁ60
resolved Nov 13
Resolved as
80%

We'll be playing 10 games. So if I win 5 games, then this resolves to 50%. If I win all of them (the most likely option, surely), then this resolves to 100%. If @Conflux wins 10, then this resolves to 0%.

See also this market which asks whether @Conflux will win the majority:

And this market where @Conflux is allowed a teammate:

I will not buy any NO shares in this market, and @Conflux has agreed to not buy any YES shares.

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2y

This market should be bounded by the following markets:

p_c = https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-i-win-an-outright-majority-of

p_j = https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-i-win-at-least-9-out-of-10-gam

This market should be no lower than:

p_c \* 0 + (1 - p_c) \* 0.5

Since at most for the Conflux market to be resolved YES he will win all the games, and thus I will win 0 of them, and for it to be resolved NO I win at least 5 games.

This market should be no higher than:

p_j \* 0.9 + (1 - p_j) \* 0.8

Since at least for my market to be resolved YES, I will win 9 of the games, and for my market to be resolved NO I will win at most 8 of the games.

Currently, p_c = 0.35 and p_j = 0.47, so for this market to be rational currently, it must be between 0.35 \* 0 + 0.65 \* 0.5 = 0.325 and 0.47 \* 0.9 + 0.53 \* 0.8 = 0.847.

predictedYES 2y

@JoshuaB I see, so escape sequences don't work like I thought they did, "whoops".

2y

What percentage of games will Joshua win in the linked market?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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