We'll be playing 10 games. So if I win 5 games, then this resolves to 50%. If I win all of them (the most likely option, surely), then this resolves to 100%. If @Conflux wins 10, then this resolves to 0%.
See also this market which asks whether @Conflux will win the majority:
And this market where @Conflux is allowed a teammate:
I will not buy any NO shares in this market, and @Conflux has agreed to not buy any YES shares.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9 |
This market should be bounded by the following markets:
p_c = https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-i-win-an-outright-majority-of
p_j = https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-i-win-at-least-9-out-of-10-gam
This market should be no lower than:
p_c \* 0 + (1 - p_c) \* 0.5
Since at most for the Conflux market to be resolved YES he will win all the games, and thus I will win 0 of them, and for it to be resolved NO I win at least 5 games.
This market should be no higher than:
p_j \* 0.9 + (1 - p_j) \* 0.8
Since at least for my market to be resolved YES, I will win 9 of the games, and for my market to be resolved NO I will win at most 8 of the games.
Currently, p_c = 0.35 and p_j = 0.47, so for this market to be rational currently, it must be between 0.35 \* 0 + 0.65 \* 0.5 = 0.325 and 0.47 \* 0.9 + 0.53 \* 0.8 = 0.847.
