Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?
Jul 4

If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market.

Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <10,000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war (and has a start of conflict in 2023 or 2024).

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@mattparlmer Something in particular you're betting on?

predicts YES

@Joshua Entropy sadly

What is the source for determining “new” (ACLD, COW, etc) and counts as death? Does it have to be battlefield or can it be from disease, starvation etc that accompany war? Last does Israel-Gaza count as “new”

Non-major war version