Will the US Federal Government make it illegal to share deepfake nudes before 2026?
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2026
54%
chance

Resolves yes if the US federal government makes it broadly illegal to share sexually explicit images generated by AI without the subject's consent, before the end of 2025.

I'm not a lawyer and don't have a rigid definition of what kind of ban would count, but this will resolve based on the common sense spirit of the question.

I will not trade in this market.

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/Joshua/will-the-us-federal-government-make

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would like some clarity on whether you require a new law to pass or whether interpretation of existing laws to cover this would count.

@ShakedKoplewitz I think most scenarios in which this resolves yes would be a new law, but I could imagine other things like the supreme court making a ruling about this or the president passing some sort of executive action so I don't want to say it 100% has to be a new law. But it probably does, I don't think those other things are very likely.

bought Ṁ20 NO

Do you mean a law that covers AI generated images specifically?

Because it can be illegal in some contexts already - publishing them while implying they are real might be considered libel, using them commercially would likely be infringing on the right of personality.

bought Ṁ30 YES

I can't believe I'm betting on the government managing to pass a law.

Do you mean making it a federal crime enforced by FBI or other federal agencies?

If a federal judge finds it illegal using existing more general laws, does it resolve yes?

Or do you need congress to vote a specific law for that?

Note: AFAIK there already is some case being investigated by FBI using existing more general federal laws, but no judgment nor sentence yet (?).

https://www.ic3.gov/Media/Y2023/PSA230605

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