This question resolves based on the TIME Magazine 2024 Person of The Year. You can see all previous winners here.
If the POTY is anyone or anything like Biden, Trump, SCOTUS, etc this resolves to the first option. If the POTY is anyone or anything like ChatGPT, OpenAI, Elon Musk, etc then it resolves to the second option. If the POTY is not particularly related to either, such as Taylor Swift, then this market resolves to the third option.
My market about who will be the POTY currently seems very confident that the winner will be related to either the election or to AI. Is this true?
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@BTE This market demonstrates the three factions of manifold users 😅
@MarkHamill I really doubt they would. They’ve gave it to controversial figures before and they gave it to Trump in 2016 despite him already being incredibly controversial.
This would be antithetical to the whole point of the times person of the year.
@MarkHamill @Joshua If Trump is elected and the person of the year is someone connected to Trump but not Trump, such as a judge, an accuser, or a prosecutor of his trials, how is it resolved? What if Trump is not elected?
@Emanuele98 Interesting scenario! If he were elected despite a conviction, that seems like a good way to acknowledge the tradition without giving it to Trump.
If somehow the POTY is something like "Donald Trump and ChatGPT" then I will regretfully resolve options 1 and 2 to 50% but I think that is phenomenally unlikely so these displayed odds should be pretty literal.
If it were "Donald Trump and Taylor Swift" then I would resolve 100% to "Related the election".