Will the TIME 2024 Person of the Year be related to the US Presidential Election, Artificial Intelligence, or neither?
Dec 2
Related the election
Related to AI
Related to neither

This question resolves based on the TIME Magazine 2024 Person of The Year. You can see all previous winners here.

If the POTY is anyone or anything like Biden, Trump, SCOTUS, etc this resolves to the first option. If the POTY is anyone or anything like ChatGPT, OpenAI, Elon Musk, etc then it resolves to the second option. If the POTY is not particularly related to either, such as Taylor Swift, then this market resolves to the third option.

My market about who will be the POTY currently seems very confident that the winner will be related to either the election or to AI. Is this true?

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LOL! You are obsessed with ChatGPT. That hypothetical is ridiculous.

bought Ṁ90 Related the election YES

@BTE This market demonstrates the three factions of manifold users 😅

@Joshua 😂😂

opened a Ṁ1,000 Related the election YES at 55% order

I would make this limit order bigger if anyone would like to:

55% YES on Related [to] the election (currently M$1k)

I think if Trump wins, Time will make an excuse around J6 not to give it to him.

@MarkHamill I really doubt they would. They’ve gave it to controversial figures before and they gave it to Trump in 2016 despite him already being incredibly controversial.

This would be antithetical to the whole point of the times person of the year.

opened a Ṁ100 Related the election YES at 56% order

@MarkHamill @Joshua If Trump is elected and the person of the year is someone connected to Trump but not Trump, such as a judge, an accuser, or a prosecutor of his trials, how is it resolved? What if Trump is not elected?

@Emanuele98 Yup that's all definitely related to the election.

@Emanuele98 Interesting scenario! If he were elected despite a conviction, that seems like a good way to acknowledge the tradition without giving it to Trump.

bought Ṁ10 Related the election YES

If somehow the POTY is something like "Donald Trump and ChatGPT" then I will regretfully resolve options 1 and 2 to 50% but I think that is phenomenally unlikely so these displayed odds should be pretty literal.

If it were "Donald Trump and Taylor Swift" then I would resolve 100% to "Related the election".

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