Will Manifold target Gamers? Gamers.
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resolved Aug 11
Resolved
NO

We're a group of people who will sit for hours, days, even weeks on end performing some of the hardest, most mentally demanding tasks. Over, and over, and over all for nothing more than a little mana saying we did.

We'll punish our selfs betting on questions others would consider torture, because we think it's fun.

We'll spend most if not all of our free time min maxing the stats of a fictional character stock all to draw out a single extra point of mana per day.

Many of us have made careers out of doing just these things: slogging through the grind, all day, the same questions over and over, hundreds of times to the point where we know evety little detail such that some have attained such gamer nirvana that they can literally bet in these markets blindfolded.

Do these people have any idea how many portfolios have been smashed, AI secrets leaked, league placements and streaks destroyed 8n frustration? All to latter be referred to as bragging rights?

These people honestly think this is a battle they can win? They take our stocks? We're already turning numeric questions into stocks. They take our non-predictive markets? Gamers aren't shy about throwing their mana else where, or even making markets our selves. They think calling us minnows, insider traders, gambling apologists is going to change us? We've been called worse things by prepubescent 10 day old bots with a shitty trading algorithm. They picked a fight against a group that's already grown desensitized to their strategies and methods. Who enjoy the battle of attrition they've threatened us with. Who take it as a challange when they tell us we no longer matter. Our obsession with proving we can after being told we can't is so deeply ingrained from years of dealing with effective altruists and rationalists laughing at how pathetic we used to be that proving you people wrong has become a very real need; a honed reflex.

Gamers are competative, hard core, by nature. We love a challange. The worst thing you did in all of this was to challange us. You're not special, you're not original, you're not the first; this is just another boss fight.


This question resolves YES if anyone who works at Manifold confirms that they are targeting gamers (as a potential audience) more than they were before the day this question was created. If there is no such official confirmation by market close on 8/10/23, this question resolves NO.

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I'll resolve this in the morning unless anyone has any objections

predicted YES

@Joshua Ya I object to how you resolved 😠

predicted NO

@AndyMac How do you think it should have been resolved and why?

This is closing tonight! I'm won't bet so I stay unbiased but sure looks like a no right now!

sold Ṁ36 of YES

@Joshua thanks, escaped with a -7 payout (much better than eating the whole loan!)

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I hope so, eSports alone could... um... now that I think about it, there's already eSports betting (with money and/or valuable in-game items).

Still, they just have to target gamers, not necessarily succeed at doing so. If my reading of the market criteria is correct?

Crucially, they need to directly confirm they are doing additional targeting of gamers. I will not guess at their intentions.

predicted YES

@Joshua So I or you could directly ask them in a comment thread?

Certainly.

classic copypasta

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Strong argument this market automatically resolves to yes: Manifold released a Twitch integration last year:

https://manifold.markets/twitch

@AndyMac

Ah, sorry if the copypasta obscured the resolution details at the bottom but this is about future targeting of gamers beyond the day of market creation. If they did more things with Twitch that would be a strong evidence of yes though!

predicted NO

@Joshua I think this actually is evidence to the contrary. This article shows that Manifold is already targeting gamers.

Adding new features to a platform they already support is not a change in policy.

The stronger their past support, the higher the bar of "more than".

I think it's likely that some gaming related tab may be opened, but I think it's unlikely that

A. A manifold employee publicly states that

B. They are shifting focus more heavily towards gamers (as opposed to the past).

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I have often thought about this and have brought it up in the discord last year


I wanted a secondary market of our own discord currency to be pegged to mana. Then our secondary currency can be used and relevant for our discord while its peg is a pipeline to manifold markets. Our gaming group gets an economy, Manifold markets gets a secondary market and marketing pipeline. Secondary market could be initialized with a minimum amount to start a secondary market.

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Oh, also I will not bet in this market.