It seems like a gathering of those who have a lot of mana and who claim to know the future is a good place to meet a wizard. This resolves Yes if I meet someone distinctly wizard-y, No if I meet no one at all wizard-y, and 50% if I'm unsure whether the people I meet are wizard-y enough enough to justify a full Yes or No.
I imagine that a Wizard is someone significantly older than me with a lot of facial hair who is wise and mysterious. A hat, walking stick, and animal companion are also all possible signs of wizard-ness. Ability to perform acts of magic is also a bonus, although one could be a magician without being a wizard.
A wizard can also be of any gender, although I'd typically expect a pointed nose, some moles, and long fingernails from a feminine wizard. But as with the other criteria, none of these is a requirement.
It is okay if I meet the wizard outside of Manifest itself, as long as it's still on my trip to Berkely from Friday-Monday.
I may post comments when I spot possible wizards, although I may not go out of my way to talk to them as the conference will probably be pretty busy.
As this is entirely vibes-based, I will not trade on this market.
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wears an old-fashioned hat & has lots of facial hair: https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/19eda665-9c14-409b-991e-ad105b8b9ea8_3840x2160.png
well-known for his wise and mysterious sayings: https://www.lesswrong.com/highlights
attempts to summon and control otherworldly entities, hoping to use their godlike powers to do his bidding: https://intelligence.org/
deeply familiar with multiple schools of magical lore, spellcasting exploits, leveling mechanics, etc: https://hpmor.com/
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SA9hDewwsYgnuscae/projectlawful-com-eliezer-s-latest-story-past-1m-wordslives by his own idiosyncratic moral code, an elaborated variant of the "wizard's code of honesty": https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdwbX9pFEr7Pomaxv/meta-honesty-firming-up-honesty-around-its-edge-cases
personality oscillates unpredictably between jovial / witty / practical-joker, and somber pronouncements about mankind's fallen nature and the impending end of the world
97% likely to attend Manifest: https://manifold.markets/ManifestConference/will-eliezeryudkowsky-come-to-manif
what if it's just a wizard's simulacrum that is convincing enough to fool you that it is actually the real wizard?
