Will @EliezerYudkowsky come to Manifest 2023?
resolved Oct 3

Eliezer Yudkowsky has been a noted proponent of prediction markets and active user on Manifold. We've invited him to come to Manifest; he's been ambivalent, specifically citing an uncertainty about his desire to travel during September. Will he decide to come, in the end?

Resolves to YES if Eliezer attends our conference (whether he speaks or not).

Caveat emptor: Eliezer is known to insider trade on markets about him...

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ6,000 of YES

@ManifestConference resolves YES I believe. I'm not there but photos have been posted

@chrisjbillington Could just be a humanoid AI impersonating him. He warned us plenty. I'd wait till the results of the body examination come out.

predicted YES

For those not in discord:


You gotta ask them to give you more mana 😂

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@Joshua man, and i liquidated some of my other positions too :(

predicted NO

The closing date seems off.

Market conditions unclear.

What if he attends in spirit only? What if he dies, God forbid, and attends the event as a ghost? What if he drives by the venue, honks his car horn 6 times, and then drives away to show dominance, does that count as 'attending'?

Please clarify.

predicted YES

Also, do we need a “conditional on Aella attending, will Yud attend” market?

predicted YES

"Travel"? I thought Yud also lived in Berkeley!