This resolves YES iff between the creation of this market and the end of the Manifest Conference, someone gets a permanent tattoo that is clearly manifold related.
Examples: The origami crane, mana-chan, any of the notable manifold memes.
If someone gets a tattoo that is related to prediction markets in general but not necessarily manifold, this resolves to 50%.
Examples: A brier score, the word "superforecaster", the word "Metaculus".
Convincing proof must be posted in the comments of this market before market close. I will be wary of any photoshop attempts, so a video would be ideal.
I am also happy to confirm in person and take a video, as I will be attending Manifest. If no proof is posted by market close, this market resolves NO.
I will not trade in this market or get a tattoo myself.
1,000
3.00
"Grandpa, how come you have this tattoo?"
"Well you see, grandson, the market was trading at 5% and there was so much liquidity! I was coming second in masters league and there was only a week to go in season five, the guy in first place was laundering profit and the admins did nothing! So what's a guy to do? So I put in some limit orders at 2% and got the wiggle man to bet into it, and -"
" - OK but what does "rationalussy" even mean, grandpa?"
"Son, stop bothering your grandpa. He won't remember, his dementia has been getting worse. Just try to keep him happy so we can have a nice Christmas, OK?"
(muttering) "...dementia...but I'm hedged...bought 100k NO in the Alzheimer's cure markets...hedged...when do I get my loans..."
"...merry Christmas to you too Grandpa"