Who will be the top 5 in Masters League Season 11 (March)? [Resolves to 20% Each]
22
407
2.2K
resolved Apr 2

When season 11 locks in, everyone in the top 5 will resolve to 20%. You can submit more names, which will split off from Other.

See the Season 10 version here:

/Joshua/who-will-be-the-top-5-in-manifold-m

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Good game! Next season's markets are up:

@strutheo
bought Ṁ240 @strutheo NO

Doesn’t the partner creator program basically end his chances of getting anywhere close to the top 5 now that he won’t receive unique trader bonuses?

@JamesF no longer the case. the program was changed before releasing the first batch of partners; they will still gain full mana

boughtṀ100@Joshua YES

@AnnaCherry You don't want to buy anyone higher than 20%! Everyone in the top 5 resolves to 20%, one fifth of 100%!

bought Ṁ50 Other YES

@Joshua I DON'T KNOW HOW MATHS WORK!!! I'm just having fun because I feel like my trend predictive ability is fairly high, but it's entirely a subconscious "feels" sorcery instead of analytical "equations" wizardry 😛 I will gladly learn if anyone wants to explain things to me like I am 5 🙏

But also I just sat with what you said and I feel like I know what you mean. Since there are 5 resolution options, 20% is the max optimal bet but what are the drawbacks of going higher i.e. putting more M on it?

@Joshua I just really believe in you being in the top 5, is that okay!... lol

@AnnaCherry you lose the difference even if you're correct in the final picks. basically treat this as 20% = YES and think of betting to 25% as betting a normal question to 125% (if it were possible): nothing can happen 125%, so that extra mana vanishes

@AnnaCherry Sounds like you bet on vibes. That's been really lucrative strategy for some folks. (Particularly @shankypanky!)

boughtṀ3@Lion YES

@Bayesian and here we go again 🤣

@Lion you can be top 5 if you try! And it would be silly to not try for a second month in a row!

@Bayesian first or third in a row, this can't be the second month in a row. I came Top5 last season and this is about season 11.

bought Ṁ3 @Lion YES

@Lion I'm confused. If you got top5 in season 9, not top5 in season 10 on purpose, and not top5 in season 11 on purpose, that would be the second time in a row where you're not trying to reach top5?

@Bayesian got you, thought you were talking about top5 in a row and not the not trying row.

The thing is, I've already reached t5 and I'm far off winning this leaugue that i don't even try.

@Lion ohhh like the diff between
not (try for a second month in a row)
vs
(not try) for a second month in a row

@shankypanky

lol why am I even here? 🫠

@shankypanky You'd be #7 right now if you were in Masters! Oh I need to add @TonyPepperoni by the same logic though

@Joshua only if Strutheo and Ammon weren't also there lol - I can't compete with those trader bonuses!