Who are all of the people who will be Speaker of The House before election day 2024? [Unlinked Free Response]
#118th Congress#Speaker of the House election
9
343
แน€835
Nov 5
4%
Jim Jordan
4%
Patrick McHenry
4%
Elise Stefanik
4%
Hakeem Jeffries
4%
Steve Scalise
3%
Kevin McCarthy
3%
Donald Trump
3%
Kevin Hern
3%
Tom Emmer
Resolved
YES
Mike Johnson

This is an unlinked free respone market, each option moves from 0%-100% independently of the rest and each option can resolve early as soon as it becomes true.

An option will resolve to yes if that person becomes Speaker of The House for any amount of time after this market is created and before election day 2024. On election day, all remainin options resolve no.

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Curious to know more about this kind of market. Is there a write up somewhere?

bought แน€50 of Hakeem Jeffries NO

@Fion It's basically a bunch of separate yes/no markets

@Conflux oh interesting. Simpler than I expected but I suppose I can see how it would be convenient. Can each market resolve early?

bought แน€10 of Donald Trump NO

They can! So if Jim Jordan is made speaker this month his name will resolve Yes but the market will continue. If in November he loses power and Steve Scalise becomes speaker, then Steve's name will resolve Yes.

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