When will Trump apologize for something?
25
1kṀ1945
resolved Jan 1
100%85%
Not before Election Day
0.4%
Before March 1st
0.5%
Before April 1st
0.5%
Before May 1st
0.5%
Before June 1st
0.5%
Before July 1st
0.4%
Before August 1st
1.0%
Before September 1st
1.3%
Before October 1st
10%
Before Election Day, November 5th

Must be a public, non-sarcastic apology for something he hasn't apologized for in the past.

In cases of ambiguity, this question uses definition 1a from Webster's Dictionary:

an admission of error or discourtesy accompanied by an expression of regret

Pleading guilty to a crime does not necessarily count as an apology, but there may be situations in which Trump does apologize for something in court and those would count even if he's just doing it for legal reasons.

These rules may be updated to better cover edge cases, so please bring up any you think of in the comments. I will not trade in this market, except to set the initial probability.

This market resolves to earliest time period in which Trump apologizes for something, or to "Not before Election Day" if he doesn't by then.

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