What new industry will Elon Musk have a new major company/brand for next?
12
139
แน€925
Jul 2
31%
Other
13%
Military Weapons
11%
Streaming / Television/ Film
8%
[No new industry / company / brand by 2028]
8%
GPUs/Chip Fabrication/Computer Hardware
5%
Finance [Not crypto]
5%
Crypto/ Blockchain/ Web3
5%
Video Game Development
4%
education
4%
Biotech
3%
Robotics
1.9%
Drone Logistics
1.3%
Prediction Market

Has to be both a new industry he wasn't in before, and a new/acquired company/brand. So it can't be a new industry by an existing Musk company/brand, or a new Musk company/brand in an industry he was already in.

So if SpaceX starts making weapons that's not a new company in a new industry, but if Musk buys Raytheon then it counts. Twitter buying Mastadon would not count, because that's the same industry.

The spirit of the question is that his current major, distinct companies/brands and their industries are:

Twitter/X - Social Media

xAI - Generative Artificial Intelligence

Tesla - Electric Vehicles / Batteries

SolarCity - Renewable Energy (Acquired by Tesla, but distinct enough to count)

SpaceX/Starlink - General Aerospace Company / Telecommunications

Neuralink - Neurological Research / Cybernetics

The Boring Company - Construction / Tunnels

These are what I think a reasonably informed layperson might say if you asked them to name all the Elon Musk companies. A distinct new entry in this list resolves this market.

I am open to defining more formal criteria of what would resolve this market, and may update these criteria to better fit the spirit of the question.

Please try to avoid submitting industries that are too similar to existing answers in the market, if I judge something to be overlapping I may label it invalid.

If Musk starts/acquires a large company that is in several distinct industries, I will resolve to the answer that best describes them. I may privilege older accurate answers over newer, more specific answers that are added only after news breaks.

I've set the initial resolution date to mid 2024 to remind myself to check on this question, and will continue extending the close date by 6 months each time I do so.

If Elon does not start/acquire a new major company/brand in a new industry by 2028, this resolves to [No new industry/company/brand by 2028].

Get แน€200 play money
Sort by:
Streaming / Television/ Film

funniest possible outcome: elon buying infowars and resolving this yes

Would Crypto/blockchain/web3 include any metaverse/VR type stuff? Or would that be separate? Separately, would this include general "finance" type stuff that doesn't necessarily include crypto?

@Marnix No these are two distinct things. The only thing blockchain and VR have in common is meaningless hype. You could just call this category blockchain but people come up with all kinds of stupid marketing so I thought it's clearer this way.

@Marnix I think "metaverse/VR" is a valid thing to add. And yeah "non-crypto finance" is also distinct.

bought แน€3 of Video Game Development YES

@Shump Fair! I more thought it could because of the silly metaverse/web3 connections that were running rampant for some time, but that makes sense to me

bought แน€5 of Crypto/ Blockchain/ ... YES

@Marnix People get confused about what those terms mean because marketing people have deliberately obfuscated the meaning of those terms. Web3 is simply synonymous with blockchain, and Metaverse is just VR with social aspects.

if, hypothetically, he integrates some sort of payments system into X as he's mentioned in the past, but it's not fundamentally the establishment of a currency/token and is under the X umbrella (as it's part of the site), that could count?

I see crypto/web3 but I have a feeling there's something payment related that will come and isn't in this sphere

@shankypanky That sounds like it could be a new industry, but not a new company/brand. Gotta be both, something that would have its own entry on the list in the description.

bought แน€30 of Robotics NO

Can I submit "Alternative Transportation Infrastructure" or do Boring Company and Hyperloop make that too boring?

@MichaelWheatley Hmm that seems like it could overlap with Boring Company if it's that general. Is there a more specific form of transportation you had in mind?

I'm being pedantic (I'm a writer/copy editor sry) but: it's Neuralink, small typo

๐Ÿ™ƒ

hahaha thx, edited.

@Joshua I can add Orbital Manufacturing or Asteroid Mining independently of SpaceX, right?

@MichaelWheatley Yeah SpaceX isn't currently doing those things, and if they start doing them but it's still SpaceX then that's not a new company/brand so wouldn't resolve yes. But he theoretically could start or buy a new company that does do those things.

@MichaelWheatley I guess it doesn't could if it's under the SpaceX umbrella? but counts if he acquires such a company? What if he makes it and splits it off, like how Starlink is maybe splitting off and going public?

@MichaelWheatley I did make the choice not to list Starlink here, I think that it's under the SpaceX umbrella. So I'd be strict about an Asteroid Mining thing being distinct from SpaceX.

@Joshua Can I get a confirmation that if he splits off a company, it doesn't count? E.G. if Starlink splits off and goes public, does this resolve Telecommunications Infrastructure?

@Joshua Hmmm yeah I don't think that counts, since that's not a new Musk brand it's an existing one that becomes bigger. I'll edit the description to say that SpaceX includes starlink/telecom.

Robotics

If he bought Boston Dynamics or something I think this would count, but Tesla already does a lot of robotics right? So be wary of that, Tesla doing more robotics itself wouldn't be enough.

bought แน€30 of GPUs/Chip Fabricatio... NO

@Joshua Exactly. I'm imagining humanoid/canine-oid robotics rather than manufacturing automation, if that helps you do a rename.

bought แน€10 of Other YES
bought แน€1 of Military Weapons YES

@Joshua No, feel free to NA if it's too close.

@MichaelWheatley

Doesn't seem like he's serious about it so far, so don't think I have to N/A bc buying Boston Dynamics should count if he did it.