Resolves to the answer(s) that I judge to be the closest to the truth after it is confirmed in the One Piece manga. Close date will be adjusted as necessary to close the market shortly before when the reveal is expected.
If multiple answers convey basically the same theory, I will resolve to the first of those answers that were submitted. I will try to point out when duplicate answers are submitted in the comments below so that no one bids on them by mistake.
I will generally err towards labeling a new answer as a duplicate even if it is more specific than the old answer of the same theory, so as to avoid confusion and vote-splitting. This will be especially true if the additional specificity in an answer is based on new information released since this market was created.
For example, suppose someone submits "a cat" as the answer today and then in three years we are told that the One Piece belongs to Imu. If someone then submitted "Imu's cat", I would judge that answer to be a duplicate and this market would resolve to 100% "a cat" if the One Piece was Imu's cat.
However, I will not judge an answer to be a duplicate of an extremely vauge previous theory based on no less information. For example, I would not consider the answer "a cat" to be a duplicate of the answer "an animal" and this market would resolve to 100% "a cat" if the One Piece was a cat.
I may resolve to a percentage if there are multiple non-duplicate answers that I judge to be closest to the truth. If "a cat" and "a dog" are both submitted and the One Piece was a "a catdog" then this market would resolve to 50% cat and 50% dog.
If no answers are anything near close to the truth, I will resolve to the answer "None of these answers".
If the One Piece is never revealed, I will resolve to N/A and cry a lot.
I will bid on this market to add new answers, and may bid on other people's answers to approve them as what I think are good submissions. If I have a positive payout after resolution, I will donate my profits to Manifold for Charity.
I may wait for a few chapters after the reveal to resolve to be sure that there is no false reveal or additional information that would change the resolution.
I'm happy to clarify any resolution criteria in the comments or over discord, and I encourage people to post the reasoning for their theories!
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@Joshua By definition, None of these answers should never resolve YES because one of the answers is Other.
@Joshua mhm, it's probably the closest bet I have.
If I was to be more specific though, the One Piece is probably more of a collection of items/artifacts that can change the world. (rant Incoming I'm sorry bro)
We know that the Roger Pirates got Oda’s notes the answers to the secrets of the world, but it'd seem strange if the history was encrypted behind another poneglyph considering you need four to access the island. As well, if it was just the history of the world, why wouldn't the Roger Pirates just reveal it instead of starting the Great Pirate Era? Also it'd mean Robin's goal is just "I wanna find the One Piece" which would be pretty funny lol.
Rule of Three; we have the holy trinity of Uranus, Pluton and Poseidon already.
Bink's Sake was already a famous song, considering Brook and the Rumbar Pirate's knew it when they sailed. The meaning of Bink's Sake is probably revealed there, though.
Gold and Jewels is actually a trick answer, considering that there's a likely chance that all of the Roger Pirate's treasure is there. "I left everything the world has to offer in one place" suggests that they left something there, right?
That's why I'm betting on an ancient mystery mouska-tool over anything, all of this stuff has a good chance of being there, but if it was only that, then it makes the One Piece less... special, if that makes sense? We've already gotten poneglyphs, ancient nukes, piles o' gold, and banger songs throughout the story so the One Piece being something wholly unique makes the most sense.
TL;DR the One Piece needs to be special or Oda's gonna get fraud allegations for the rest of time 👍