Troll Logic Megamarket: What things will technically happen by April Fool's Day? (In loving memory of Levi Finkelstein)
56
1.6k
4.2k
2025
72%
Someone submits an option to this market after April Fool's Day because you forgot to close submissions
49%
This market will never close again after April 19th
72%
Every Twitter user simultaneously tweets the word "rationalussy"
69%
Partial US govermment shutdown
82%
Israel-Hamas ceasefire
23%
At market close, the total number of yes shares minus the total number of no shares in this market is expressible as the sum of two nonnegative cubes. (OEIS A004999)

Be warned! All options resolve according to the most trollishly correct argument presented in the comments! Everything in this market might be a trap! All mana bet is forfeit, no refunds!

Events must happen after the creation of this market and before market close at 9 PM PT, April 1st.

Whether something happened is decided by the person who submitted the option to the market, unless their ruling is challenged by at least two other users in which case I will then rule on the case with my own troll logic.

If my own troll logic is challenged by at least two additional users, then we will escalate even further to some form of Silly Court.

This market is intended to be in good fun, if I judge an option to not be in good fun I will N/A the option.

This market will be unranked and not count for leagues, unless one of the site staff who outrank me decides it would be funny to make it ranked.

Any of these criteria might be updated to better fit the spirit of the market.

l will not trade on this market.

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Every Twitter user simultaneously tweets the word "rationalussy"
bought Ṁ10 Every Twitter user s... YES

Why has this one not resolved yes?

@ButtocksCocktoasten the creator appears to be banned😅

@Joshua Yet another victim of Manifold's censorship of rationalussy

@Joshua Not banned, but self-immolated

@PlasmaBallin that's true, but also:

(I don't remember this happening? I thought he was just deleted after immolating, but still liking markets/comments etc afterward?)

Someone submits an option to this market after April Fool's Day because you forgot to close submissions

Well that didn't happen before april fools day, so it should surely resolve NO.

@Joshua That sounds too rational for a troll logic market. You have to think rationalussy, not rationally.

@Joshua the market also didn't close at 9 PM PT, April 1st per the description, so I believe all criteria is sus here

@shankypanky well I guess I could always try again next year

@Joshua there isn't a year specified here - is this April Fool's Day 2025? 🤔 truly a loophole Levi would be proud of

Still needing some resolutions here... re-opened again.

@KeenenW does Mira have a human pet?

@Joshua This is a hypothetical? You are asking if in a given scenario she will order for a human to be petted? Can you give me some more details on the situation? It's hard to make an educated prediction with such limited information.

@KeenenW It's your question! I just work here.

@Joshua Hm, you pushed past my trolling unphased. After looking into things. I think this software engineer might be right. If you agree feel free to resolve no.

bought Ṁ5 Someone submits an o... YES

I believe @Joshua to be a secret human pet of Mira, and this should re-resolve yes

@shankypanky That was in April!

@Joshua these things don't happen overnight!

@shankypanky ...on the contrary, usually when someone becomes a human pet it is overnight in my experience.

@Joshua sounds like pets with dog energy tbh

Manifold Markets have ASI

Please resolve this YES, as there were two separate arguments for that)

At market close, the total number of yes shares minus the total number of no shares in this market is expressible as the sum of two nonnegative cubes. (OEIS A004999)

5 days? This resolves @Pykess

Trying to plan ahead

@nmw Not quite. Down in the comments there was discussion from Joshua about the market being reopened periodically until all discussions are resolved. I specified that my answer cannot resolve until it is the final unresolved answer.

@Pykess

Fair enough lol

Thanks for the quick response!

Back to math homework 📚 until this resolves

Mira has her first human pet

As an experienced software engineer, Mira would not keep us as pets, but as cattle.