Manifold's Brokered Convention: Which Democrat do you think would be most likely to win the 2024 election as nominee?
Manifold's Brokered Convention: Which Democrat do you think would be most likely to win the 2024 election as nominee?
48
resolved Mar 18
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Raphael Warnock
J. B. Pritzker
Jared Polis
Andy Beshear
Josh Shapiro
Cory Booker
John Kerry
Al Gore
Hakeem Jeffries

This is a poll about potential democratic nominee's electability.

Imagine it's the Democratic Nation Convention in August, and Joe Biden has offered to release his delegates and allow them to vote for whoever they want to as the democratic nominee. The candidates above are being considered.

Out of these options, who do you think would have the best chance of winning the presidential election?

Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
Joe Biden
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading


Sort by:
1y

I picked the bottom option on the list because I wanted to see the results. I don't even know who he is so don't consider it a vote.

1y

@Eliza same

1y

See results.

1y

Big Gretch would dominate!

@Arky She's doing the best so far here!

Anyone know of polling in her favor though? RCP just has this:

Which is just too small a sample, that Emerson poll was bad for every dem.

Newsom:

Harris:

1y

@Joshua Yeah I don't know of any polls with her, I'm honestly just going off vibes here lol. I think a competent Midwestern Democrat would be very strong in a national election though.

1y

Michelle Obama sits third at 6% to win the presidency election on Polymarket and isn't included in this list?

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1708116123174

1y

@Lion I'm trying to weigh practicality vs electability in the selection here. I genuinely think Taylor Swift might be more electable than many people here but just like Michelle that's not going to happen so it would distort the results to include it.

1y

@Joshua I think Michelle Obama would be a serious replacement for Biden and would be a serious contender to challenge Trump if Biden dropped out (which isn't likely). More likely than Al Gore or even Newsom in my eyes,

I think Swift would be the best president of all times ❤ , but that's a different topic.

1y

@Lion Ok second poll haha:

@Joshua Noooooooooooo, I was so excited that I voted Michelle before I saw Swift 😭 #heartbroken

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy