You can submit any market here which did not resolve before 2023, in which Manifold looked smart and the market was a good market(we want more markets like it).

This is a test market for a potential series of Manifold Awards.

The loose plan is to resolve to a panel of TBD manifold user judges, who will choose amongst the markets that are submitted as options here. The winner selected by a vote of the judges will resolve to Yes, and all other options will resolve to No. I'll update the resolution criteria as more details are decided.

My general rubric is that resolution for this award would be based on an approximately equal weighting of:

• How smart the manifold community looks in retrospect based on the market's price (accounting for if it was just something easy to predict)

• How much we want to encourage market creators to create more markets similar to the market (for a fun user experience and to encourage valuable predictions, not for virality/site growth)

But this may be updated to better fit the spirit of "Best market where Manifold was really smart".

I have put in some candidates, but as one of the potential judges I will note that I think there probably better, non-obvious candidates which could beat any of these. While a market with very few traders probably won't win, a medium-sized market could certainly beat one of these massive markets, as I don't intend to give points just for virality.

I will not bet in this market as long as I plan to be a judge, and will try to keep my opinion private on which answers I think are best.

However, I will be only one of several people judging the resolution, so don't bet too much based on your model of me. I encourage you to make the case for your favorites in the comments.