[Finalists Only] Who will be the TIME Person of the Year 2023?
➕
Plus
178
Ṁ180k
resolved Dec 6
100%99.4%
Taylor Swift
0.0%
Xi Jinping
0.4%
Sam Altman
0.1%
Trump Prosecutors
0.0%
Barbie
0.0%
Vladimir Putin
0.0%
King Charles III
0.0%
Jerome Powell
0.0%
Hollywood Strikers
0.0%Other

This market resolves to the finalist who is selected as the 2023 POTY. Every option includes slight variations or sharing, so for example Sam Altman still resolves to 100% yes if it is "Sam Altman and ChatGPT", and Jerome Powell still resolves 100% yes if it's "Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve".

This market will remain open through the announcement. It should not resolve to "other", but I have left that as an option in case of unknown unknowns.

Please comment here instead of the main market to reduce lag.

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I can't believe that after weeks of defending/reasoning for the Swift position I didn't cash in more on this obvious outcome. I've learned a lot about the degree to which I'm risk-averse and I don't like it 😅

support group 🤝

@shankypanky Me too, but I made a lot so it’s okay. Feels like I have a normie emulator in my brain. Also, this whole AI thing is just a meme.

touching grass is the new alpha

@lukres Exactly. Just talked with a nerdy math major about this market and he didn't even know who Sam Altman is. I think that AI advancements this year have been very very important, but most people don't really know about it.

I definitely think they couldn't/wouldn't have given PotY to Altman without making it an "&AI" or equivalent sort of announcement for that reason. for a lot of us here he's an obvious person but the topic at a dinner table isn't him, it's AI excitement or concerns or confusion etc.

@shankypanky There was no need to award AI now. It’s either mostly hype, or it will have more impact in 2024 and later.

@shankypanky Ever tried manifol.io? It taught me to bet more aggressively.

@marketwise haven't! I'll check it out - thanks!🙏

it's time I get a grip on what I'm actually doing here I stg half my bets I'm going on vibes, 40% are driven by compulsive behaviour, and the remainder are things I vaguely know about... and my strategy for any of those categories is questionable at best 🙃

I feel so validated! I was telling my friends and family that the odds for Altman and Swift should be swapped, but was scared to bet too much. Thanks for the tips, everyone!

I have lost mana, but I feel like I still profited

@Joshua Their "Reasoning" is something we all talked about in the main market. They make a legit case to why.

@SirCryptomind This is not a legit case. Taylor has not influenced a single thing this year.

@DavidBolin She influenced my profits 😅

@DavidBolin I consider an opiate to the masses as definitely an impact

@Joshua rookie numbers

@JakeFromHackmud 😍

/market what is the highest number of taylor minutes listened to by a manifold user

Looking forward to @Mira‘s concession speech.

@SirCryptomind @Mira‘s consolation prize

More of Manifold will read this than the Taylor Swift, guaranteed.

@NicoDelon This is disgusting, so nasty and uncalling for!

@SirCryptomind Sounds like a market (although idk how you would resolve it, I guess a poll? still might end up super biased)

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