[Finalists Only] Who will be the TIME Person of the Year 2023?
178
2.9k
8.3k
resolved Dec 6
100%99.4%
Taylor Swift
0.0%
Xi Jinping
0.4%
Sam Altman
0.1%
Trump Prosecutors
0.0%
Barbie
0.0%
Vladimir Putin
0.0%
King Charles III
0.0%
Jerome Powell
0.0%
Hollywood Strikers
0.0%Other

This market resolves to the finalist who is selected as the 2023 POTY. Every option includes slight variations or sharing, so for example Sam Altman still resolves to 100% yes if it is "Sam Altman and ChatGPT", and Jerome Powell still resolves 100% yes if it's "Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve".

This market will remain open through the announcement. It should not resolve to "other", but I have left that as an option in case of unknown unknowns.

Please comment here instead of the main market to reduce lag.

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I can't believe that after weeks of defending/reasoning for the Swift position I didn't cash in more on this obvious outcome. I've learned a lot about the degree to which I'm risk-averse and I don't like it 😅

support group 🤝

@shankypanky Me too, but I made a lot so it’s okay. Feels like I have a normie emulator in my brain. Also, this whole AI thing is just a meme.

touching grass is the new alpha

@lukres Exactly. Just talked with a nerdy math major about this market and he didn't even know who Sam Altman is. I think that AI advancements this year have been very very important, but most people don't really know about it.

I definitely think they couldn't/wouldn't have given PotY to Altman without making it an "&AI" or equivalent sort of announcement for that reason. for a lot of us here he's an obvious person but the topic at a dinner table isn't him, it's AI excitement or concerns or confusion etc.

@shankypanky There was no need to award AI now. It’s either mostly hype, or it will have more impact in 2024 and later.

@shankypanky Ever tried manifol.io? It taught me to bet more aggressively.

@marketwise haven't! I'll check it out - thanks!🙏

it's time I get a grip on what I'm actually doing here I stg half my bets I'm going on vibes, 40% are driven by compulsive behaviour, and the remainder are things I vaguely know about... and my strategy for any of those categories is questionable at best 🙃

I feel so validated! I was telling my friends and family that the odds for Altman and Swift should be swapped, but was scared to bet too much. Thanks for the tips, everyone!

bought Ṁ1,000 of Taylor Swift YES
bought Ṁ10,000 of Taylor Swift YES

I have lost mana, but I feel like I still profited

@Joshua Their "Reasoning" is something we all talked about in the main market. They make a legit case to why.

@SirCryptomind This is not a legit case. Taylor has not influenced a single thing this year.

@DavidBolin She influenced my profits 😅

@DavidBolin I consider an opiate to the masses as definitely an impact

@Joshua rookie numbers

@JakeFromHackmud 😍

/market what is the highest number of taylor minutes listened to by a manifold user

Looking forward to @Mira‘s concession speech.

@SirCryptomind @Mira‘s consolation prize

More of Manifold will read this than the Taylor Swift, guaranteed.

@NicoDelon This is disgusting, so nasty and uncalling for!

@SirCryptomind Sounds like a market (although idk how you would resolve it, I guess a poll? still might end up super biased)