Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Resolves to the closest answer which does not go over the correct number. Duplicate answers will not be selected, so please double check that no one has submitted a number before you do so.
Also note that this market closes at midnight PDT, which is before the stats page updates.
1,000
3.00Duped for today:
(edit: N/Ad and recreated correctly as a free-response question)
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/exactly-how-many-engaged-users-will-50f6749519de
I'm actually watching Jeopardy right now, to add to my scrambled mess of a brain. The price is right rules is just highlighting that it's closest without going over, as was always in the description.
If you also want Family Feud vibes, we can all clap and say "good answer" whenever someone adds an option.
BTW folks the API-users do not have perfect knowledge, even once all public data is in for the day. There have been anything from 1 to 12 engaged users each day absent from the public data (I assume due to activity on private markets).
@chrisjbillington To make my point clearer, I'm pointing out people shouldn't blindly bid up the answer I added, even if it were a good point estimate it's not that likely given the uncertainty
@parhizj Closest without going over, it can only be Other if there are 0 engaged users. I’m engaged, so it won’t be 0.
@parhizj other splits equally between all answers after you place your bet. so if people put 1346, 1339, etc your other bets will split between all those
@Joshua well it wont resolve to other but there are still reasons to bet on other as long as you believe more good answers will be continue to be added that are likely to earn a profit?
@parhizj I clearly misunderstood because it’s now saying I own YES of almost every market after buying Other NO. I think I just burned a month of hard work hehe.