Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Resolves to the closest answer which does not go over the correct number. Duplicate answers will not be selected, so please double check that no one has submitted a number before you do so.
This market will not resolve to "Other", but IIUC "Other" shares get split into shares for options added in the future, so it can still make sense to buy "Other" (but someone has to actually add those options, or your "other" shares are worthless!).
1,000
3.00
@nickten This market is snipeable, but I don't think this will come in the form of actually adding the correct answer due to it not being an option yet. Those of us calculating a lower bound using the API will have narrowed it down to a range about ten wide probably many hours before midnight and maybe 5 wide at midnight. Between @PC and I I bet the correct outcome will be an option a few hours ahead of time at least.
@chrisjbillington Is there any logic to people adding answers without or before the info that can be obtained 2 or 3 hours before? I am struggling to understand that.
@ChristopherRandles some of us think we can project it accurate to a span of ten or so somewhat in advance, which makes it likely worth adding answers. If @PC and I want to compete on forecasting it's in our interests to add a bunch. I've been asleep but will add some more soon.
@chrisjbillington is the closing time correct? shouldn't this close before the final number comes in?
Don't forget you can add your own options folks (and your "other" shares are worthless if nobody does)