A companion to /Joshua/do-you-think-every-market-should-al

Sometimes a market is not the best way to get the most accurate prediction for something. In the 2023 prediction contest, the Metaculus forecasts outperformed not only Manifold but also almost everyone else.

I think there are lots of reasons not to take this at face value, the biggest one being that Manifold was just a lot smaller at the start of 2023 and I think we've gotten more accurate since due to both growth and other improvements to the platform.

But nonetheless, this is striking! And it makes sense for a number of structural reasons.

My proposal is that obviously if a pure aggregated forecast can be more accurate than a market, then every market should just also have an aggregated forecast built in. Metaculus doesn't own the concept.

It could just be another tab on every question, that everyone can reference for trading.