The title and resolution criteria don't match imo. A habitable moon base being constructed in 2035, and then continuously being inhabited including slept in for every year through 2040 would obviously be "a Moon base by 2040." This is basically: "will there be a moon base (which is slept in >1 time) by 2030" + "will that moon base not be destroyed by 2040." And the former proposition dominates the probability mass in relation to the latter.

@DavidHiggs It's probably a typo and 2040 was meant

@cloudprism Good point. If it's a typo, then the chance should greatly exceed the 2030 market. If intended, then the chance should be a tad lower, but imo almost the same.

@DavidHiggs Yeah, that was a typo. This was meant to be exactly the same as the market linked in the description, but with a longer time frame, but I forgot to change the description to say 2040 instead of 2030.