Will there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040?

Question

To count as permanently inhabited, the base must meet the following conditions:

It is continuously inhabited for at least a year. The period of continuous habitation must start before 2040, but it still counts even if it has not been a full year yet on Jan 1, 2040.

There are no plans to leave the base uninhabited at any time within 10 years of the beginning of the period of continuous habitation.

If the base is somehow destroyed before 2040 or the plan to continuously inhabit it for at least 10 years doesn't work out, it still counts as long as it meets to two conditions.

See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-a-moon-base-by-2040

@/StanPinsent/will-there-be-a-moon-base-by-2030

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (32 traders, as of Jun 7, 2026).