Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially announces that one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, or officially awards the Millennium Prize for its solution.

The remaining six eligible problems are:

• Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

• Hodge conjecture

• Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness

• P versus NP problem

• Riemann hypothesis

• Yang–Mills existence and mass gap

If no such official announcement of a solution or award of a prize is made by the CMI before January 1, 2028, this market will resolve to NO.

Note: Preprints, peer-reviewed publications, or claims of solutions that have not been officially recognized or awarded a prize by the CMI before the deadline will not qualify for a YES resolution.

Background

The Millennium Prize Problems are a set of seven mathematical problems established by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000, each carrying a $1 million reward. Only one problem has been successfully resolved to date: the Poincaré Conjecture, solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003, with the CMI officially awarding the prize in 2010 (which Perelman subsequently declined).

Under the official CMI rules, a proposed solution must be published in a qualifying peer-reviewed outlet, followed by at least a two-year waiting period to allow for community scrutiny and general acceptance before the CMI Scientific Advisory Board formally considers it for the prize.

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