What will be my most popular market of 2023?
20
605Ṁ3537
resolved Jan 1
100%98%
Will DeSantis fall to third place in Republican primary polling this year?
0.0%
Will the resolution to the whales vs. minnows market be controversial?
0.7%
Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?
1.0%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky tweet the word "rationalussy" on December 31, 2023?
0.5%Other

I will determine popularity by the number of traders on the market. I won't count bounties or polls, since they're don't really have "traders" in the typical sense. This market resolves to the title of whatever market created by me is most popular at the end of 2023. It also counts if it is a previous title for a market whose title has since been changed, or a minor variant/misspelling, as long as I can tell what market it is.

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Seems like "Will DeSantis fall to third place in Republican primary polling this year?" is crushing the other options.

@DanMan314 Good catch, looks like no one else noticed this market to correct it

Breaking: "Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?" has just surpassed, "Will the resolution to the whales vs. minnows market be controversial?" in unique traders, meaning the latter won't be chosen.

I'm surprised by how confident the market is that "Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?" will beat the other two. Keep in mind that the Eliezer Yudkowsky market will be open for the rest of the year, while the "white guys" one won't. I could see a situation where it surpasses it eventually, especially if it gets a surge of new traders at the end of the year. As for the Whales vs. Minnows one, it's still ahead by 20 traders, so I wouldn't count it out yet either.

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