Does Manifold think I'm a furry?
Basic
18
Ṁ531
resolved Sep 2
Resolved as
75%

Look, it may be true that I've created suspiciously many markets related to furries. And it is also true that I have an anthro cat OC who I love dearly and have spent hundreds of hours roleplaying as. But just because I did all those things doesn't make me a furry, okay!!!!

Inspired by Olivia's market /LivInTheLookingGlass/does-manifold-think-i-am-a-furry and resolves in the same way. I won't vote in the poll because I am biased. And yes, everything stated above is actually true; you can ask for context/clarification if you want.

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predicted YES

The poll is closed. According to the poll, most Manifolders think I'm a furry, by a margin of 10 to 6. However, as stated in the description, this market resolves the same way as Olivia's market, which only resolves to a definite answer if one side wins more than 2/3 of the vote. "Yes" did not quite reach that margin, with only 62.5% of the vote. Therefore, this resolves to the closing price of the market, 75%. Manifold has judged me as a furry in denial.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Accept it. Join us

predicted YES

@evergreenemily This is probably a good result, since it can be logically shown that anyone who is not a furry is a misanthrope. The proof is simple: A furry is a fan of anthropomorphic animals, and humans are, by definition, the most anthropomorphic animal of all, since anthropomorphic means "having human characteristics." Therefore, anyone who is not a furry is not a fan of humans, and is thus misanthropic. So I will interpret this result as Manifold deeming me only 25% misanthropic.

predicted YES

Wonder if my current profile picture will affect the choice of anyone who hasn't voted yet.

predicted YES

The poll is now live.

bought Ṁ62 YES

everything’s beginning to make sense

Shouldn't the question be something like: Will Manifold prove I'm a furry? Because proving a negative would mean what, total surveillance of your personal life?

predicted YES

@Planarian I'm very confused by this comment. This market has nothing to do with whether or not it's proven that I'm a furry. It's just about whether Manifold thinks I am one.

@JosephNoonan that's true. Well, I think you are being oddly specific and others will think so. If you deny it, then the furry doth protest too much methinks

predicted YES

@Muskwalker I need your professional opinion.

@JosephNoonan

Well, let's see this evidence here...

"Suspiciously many markets related to furries" ... +3 to furry

Tabaxi character ... +2 to furry

Joke screenshot showing "totally not a furry" search with background tabs intended to indicate secret furriness but are actually just the home page of a few furry sites ... +0 too close to call

Custom Firefox background that isn't Foxkeh or visibly furry ... -1 from furry

No furry sites in the bookmark bar ... -1 from furry

Google/Manifold icon is not a fursona ... -2 from furry

Choice of Weasyl to illustrate secret furriness 🤔🤔🤔 ... -3 from furry

Total... -2, or about 36%-41% for being furry... not too favorable, but not definitive; could be casual furry, could be closeted furry. (Going beyond what's on this page, your participation in this market probably brings it up to even odds or slightly in favor of furry.) Of course you're bein' coy about it, so low confidence — my kelly function suggests I not bet in this market.

Others will of course weight things differently, especially if they know more about you.

tl;dr:

predicted YES

@Muskwalker Not sure why Weasyl gives -3 furry points, but maybe that is just another negative furry point. As for my participation in the market, I can't say much about it because I don't remember how I came across it. I was probably expecting people would join the group to manipulate the market.

@JosephNoonan Weasyl is non-popular/dead enough that I judge it more likely an outcome of "I googled for furry sites" than of "I spend my time here" or "let me think of sites that look furry that I might plausibly hang out at". But again the context is you joking so the confidence is not super high; -3 is like 33%.

(My impression is that these days Weasyl is mostly used by artists/writers like me who just want to post their stuff in multiple places; it's included in the PostyBirb cross-posting tool. I don't even know if it's actively staffed anymore, though the github suggests there is still one active dev. There may be a community there but if it has any substantiality at all it doesn't particularly intersect with mine.)

Not a furry !! proof !

predicted NO

What is this, a picture for ants? Enhance!

Hmmmm, seems pretty legit, but let's look deeper...

Well that does say non-furry... but WAIT A SECOND ENHANCE AGAIN

He uses Firefox guys, case closed.

@Joshua Oh no, I've been caught

Need to find out how I should vote on the furry question in my survey

@JosephNoonan So this is also a market of type „will this market close above 50%“?

@gigab0nus No, there will be a poll asking whether I am a furry

@JosephNoonan

it is also true that I have an anthro cat OC who I love dearly and have spent hundreds of hours roleplaying as

"Yes, but I am in denial."

@evergreenemily True, but does playing one of the anthro races in D&D automatically make you a furry? (that is the context that I left out because I thought it was funnier without it).

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Hmm...good question. I think "Maybe, I am furry adjacent" is probably the most accurate, then? I definitely wouldn't place you lower on the Furry Scale than that - playing a Tabaxi (I assume?) or other anthro race in D&D is at least furry-adjacent, IMO.

predicted NO

Or he just wants the 20 ft climbing speed!

predicted YES

@Joshua That's what makes it furry-adjacent. Playing a Tabaxi because you want to roleplay an anthro cat in particular is straight-up furry behavior, though.

(Half-joking. Probably.)

@evergreenemily I mean, the stats played some role (especially since I created him back when racial bonuses were still a thing), but I wouldn't have made an anthro cat character if I didn't want to roleplay as an anthro cat.

@evergreenemily Though, to be clear, I did specifically want the character to be a tabaxi and would have even if it wasn't for the stats. I don't think it would be the same if he was a different race, the others just wouldn't give off the right vibe.