44% chance. Some time in Q4 2030 there will be a poll of EAs on the question of AI Pause Activism. This will be part of the annual EA survey (if they agree to it), some other similar survey or a poll I create and post on the EA forum. The question will be multiple choice and worded as follows: What effect have protests calling for a pause / stop / deceleration on the development of AI had on the world? a) Net positive b) None / Negligible c) Net negative Note that the question includes any protest primarily about pausing or slowing AI, not just those branded as PauseAI protests. The poll will be allowed to run for two weeks or whatever length of time the larger survey waits to release results before the market resolves. Will more than 60% of respondents choose a) Net positive? Context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eqTGrEsBzJJSiuTcv/the-international-pauseai-protest-activism-under-uncertainty