https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."

Some concern that Things Will Go Very Bad when oil production start diminishing. I don't know how to measure that.

• Most countries go into multi-year or double-digit recessions?

• Global political instability increases as measured by number of coups and armed conflicts?

• Technology, culture and science obviously slow down?

• Life expectancy decreases by 5 years or more?

I'm not economically minded enough so I won't pretend to have a clean resolution criterium, but the diminished oil production should play a large marginal role in the collapse. I'm open to suggestions and do link related markets.