Will manifold dollars be exchanged for real money in a secondary market before 2024?
33
631Ṁ18k
resolved May 7
Resolved
YES

e.g., I post an ebay auction for M$50k, and someone buys it for $250, and I send him a private manalink for the $50k

Jan 17, 12:50am: Will manifold dollars be exchanged for real money in a secondary market before 2023? → Will manifold dollars be exchanged for real money in a secondary market before 2024?

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predictedYES

😭

predictedYES

@MichaelWheatley Oh, did you not want me sharing it? If so, I apologize. I should have asked regardless.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing certified goofball

predictedYES

I'm unsure why this hasn't already resolved YES given all the purchases people have already made.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing Waiting for someone to post documentation of any specific example

predictedYES

I'll post proof of such a transaction in return for M$200.

predictedNO

you already get 886 when it resolves yes

@IsaacKing I'll manalink you M200 after it resolves YES.

predictedYES
predictedYES
predictedNO

@IsaacKing Can you post the associated Discord chat logs for the amount of mana that was transacted?

predictedYES

Given the recent WvM announcement, I suspect the new norm is "Yes it happens all the time, but no I'm not going to leave a paper trail to ban me over", so nobody will be stupid enough to leave new evidence for you to resolve this YES.

So if you haven't already found evidence, it's now much less likely someone will deliver it to you, and this market will resolve NO by default despite the event occurring.

Does this have to be a dedicated, persistent market, or would anyone saying “give me x for y” in a comment be enough?

the comment would count if there is some evidence the transaction actually happened afterwards (and after the creation date of this market)

if someone posts a specific instance of this happening after market creation I can resolve this yes

All the mana people have bought and sold for USD doesn't count?

@IsaacKing have people sold mana before?

predictedYES

@IsaacKing wild, but I'm assuming he's only counting one that were done after the creation of this market

If someone were to buy a bunch of yes shares and then send the $10 would that count?

What kind of information (other than the example in the description) would you need to see to resolve this YES?

God I hope so

anyone want to give me a dollar for 20 mana

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