What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?
4
100Ṁ437
2031
15%
chance

Relative to abstinence from sweeteners, not relative to an equivalent sweetness of sugar or other sweeteners.

If I had to resolve today I would do 75%.

Background:
"The sugar substitute erythritol shortens the lifespan of Aedes aegypti potentially by N-linked protein glycosylation"
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32277123/
"Elevated Erythritol: A Marker of Metabolic Dysregulation or Contributor to the Pathogenesis of Cardiometabolic Disease?"
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/18/4011
"Higher blood levels of the artificial sweetener erythritol were associated with increased risk of heart attack and stroke."

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/erythritol-cardiovascular-events
"The top 25% had twice the risk of heart attack, stroke and death compared to the bottom 25%,’ says Stanley Hazen, a cardiologist at Cleveland Clinic, Ohio, who led the research. ‘That places it on par with the strongest other cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes.’"
https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2023/03/07/study-shows-artificial-sweetener-erythritol-linked-to-increased-stroke-and-cardiac-risks/
"The sugar-free paradox: cardiometabolic consequences of erythritol"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10275890/

There are no relevant RCTs of erythritol on human cardiovascular risk that I can find. Probably no one can get an RCT of increased erythritol consumption past an IRB if they suspect it of increasing cardiovascular risk, even though the potential harm of such a trial is in expectation infinitesimal compared to the ongoing harm of not doing the trial.

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