What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT?
19
56
420
2027
1,536
expected

Resolves to the first credible news story about GPT-5's performance on the SAT

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bought Ṁ1 1460-1470 YES

google's latest build of gemini reached ~parity with GPT4 despite probably throwing way more compute at it

bought Ṁ0 1500-1510 YES

there's probably alpha in making bets just to smooth out the curve of numeric markets, with zero information about anything else

bought Ṁ1 1430-1440 YES

my 90% confidence interval is 1430-1500