
How many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI?
2
70Ṁ402100
62%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves PROB to the number of months. YES if >100, NO if <0
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
37% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
26% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) be required for Level 5 Self-Driving Cars?
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
3% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
4% chance
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
By when will we have AGI?
Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
38% chance