Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?

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resolved Jan 1

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Will a donor who is not currently widely known in effective altruism, longtermism, or existential risk give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?

I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments. I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund. I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me. I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.

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I'm not aware of any new donors giving ≥50m, so this resolves NO.

Could you list out the donors you consider to be "currently widely known"?

Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna. Not sure if there's anyone else, I think Jaan Tallinn is likely below the $50m threshold

He did $44m, and I think it's fairly likely he'll do more next year, so he would be "new" in a financial sense. Though in terms of being "currently widely known" it's more debatable.

If Jaan increased his giving, that would not suffice to resolve this market YES.

does it have to be publicly known too before the end of the year?

$50M seems like a lot. I could see $10M to $30M though. Not very high conviction, and I'm hesitant to bet at large volumes in situations where others might have private information.

predictedNO

@NuñoSempere large volumes => large fractions of my manifold bankroll

why are so many people buying YES suddenly? Any news that I missed?

Added 500 liquidity because I think this is important

I assume this would have to be public knowledge for this to resolve positively? I.e. even if you were personnally hear about such a donor, you wouldn't resolve positively unless it was okay for this information to be public? (Might be good to commit to that now.)

predictedNO

@MathieuPutz If I personally heard about the donor but it wasn't public knowledge, I would resolve positively, possibly without naming the donor, if I thought that doing so was okay given the confidentiality under which I acquired that information. Otherwise I would resolve negatively even if I knew of an additional donor.

E.g., it might be the case that a donor is somewhat widely known in the EA community, but doesn't have a website or other public posts or media articles about their giving. In this case, I would resolve positively without naming the donor if I knew about them.