Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?

Will a donor who is not currently widely known in effective altruism, longtermism, or existential risk give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?

I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments. I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund. I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me. I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

does it have to be publicly known too before the end of the year?

bought Ṁ200 of NO

$50M seems like a lot. I could see $10M to $30M though. Not very high conviction, and I'm hesitant to bet at large volumes in situations where others might have private information.

predicts NO

@NuñoSempere large volumes => large fractions of my manifold bankroll

why are so many people buying YES suddenly? Any news that I missed?

Added 500 liquidity because I think this is important

I assume this would have to be public knowledge for this to resolve positively? I.e. even if you were personnally hear about such a donor, you wouldn't resolve positively unless it was okay for this information to be public? (Might be good to commit to that now.)

predicts NO

@MathieuPutz If I personally heard about the donor but it wasn't public knowledge, I would resolve positively, possibly without naming the donor, if I thought that doing so was okay given the confidentiality under which I acquired that information. Otherwise I would resolve negatively even if I knew of an additional donor.

E.g., it might be the case that a donor is somewhat widely known in the EA community, but doesn't have a website or other public posts or media articles about their giving. In this case, I would resolve positively without naming the donor if I knew about them.