Will HPMoR be sold on Amazon?
74
1.9K
1K
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
NO

Will physical copies of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality book series be sold on Amazon by the end of the year?

This market resolves yes if I can go to amazon.com and order a physical copy of [ETA 29 Oct 2023: at least the first volume of] [ETA 31 Oct 2023: all volumes in the series of] HPMoR and it arrives at my place, and predict that other people can order it too, just like a normal book; there should be a supply of >200 copies (i.e. this is not just a small number of second-hand copies, or similar).

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predicted YES

Do people think I should resolve this NO now? Anyone think I should not?

predicted NO

@JonasVollmer I'm too heavily invested for my comment to count, but if the existing copy has been pulled and the email from Amazon is the "final word" then I don't see a reason to drag it out to end of year

Another attempt could be made but the current situation seems to indicate it would only be temporary

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish Resolving now, as nobody has objected, and 3 people (including Vikram) have agreed

predicted YES

Amazon has definitively told me this will not happen.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@VikramValame Why is it from "kindle content review" if we're talking physical books?

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I was using KDP print-on-demand

predicted NO

@VikramValame even orignal listing is gone

https://a.co/d/00woD3f

predicted YES

@VikramValame Sad 😢 Congrats on trying though!

predicted NO

@JonasVollmer I really wanted this to happen, regardless of mana. I got my copy of the first volume at least! Good effort 👍

predicted NO

@VikramValame Do you know how many got sold?

Want to know how rare my copy is now. 😎

predicted YES

@marketwise I can’t even log in to my account, so no! Sorry :(.

predicted NO

@VikramValame Do you know what the violation was?

predicted NO

Is it looking unlikely from a pure time point of view? Remaining volumes by end December?

2 traders bought Ṁ125 NO
predicted YES

Update: Amazon says probably not happening. Better start selling!

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%
predicted NO

@VikramValame was this just a ploy to tank the price?

predicted YES

No, it was not.

predicted NO

@VikramValame Do you have proof of amazon saying this?

predicted YES

Obviously? They sent me an email.

predicted NO

@VikramValame Can you show it here?

predicted NO

show or it didnt happen

predicted YES

@TheBayesian You’re free to bet yes!

predicted NO

@VikramValame why do you still have your yes position

predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish Well I’m not going to insider trade lol. I made my bet when I posted the books to Amazon, and I’ll keep it until they give me a final denial or acceptance.

predicted NO

@VikramValame insider trading is the best trading

bought Ṁ100 of NO

2 traders bought Ṁ175 NO
predicted NO
predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish It's back

bought Ṁ250 YES from 56% to 69%
predicted NO

@mudPi314 eek.

Oh well, let's see what happens

predicted NO

@mudPi314 showing as un-back again for me?

bought Ṁ50 NO from 68% to 63%
predicted YES

@Dave_9000ish Oh wow, anyone have an idea what causes it to go offline?

predicted NO

@JonasVollmer ph'nglui mglw'nafh J. K. Rowling wgah'nagl fhtagn?

predicted NO

@Tomoffer by which I mean maybe it's jk Rowling (via her legal team), no idea though.

predicted NO

@JonasVollmer looks like it's no longer shipping outside of US on dot com site. Entering a US zip code causes it to be available again. So US Local setting applied. Available on amazon UK for UK delivery

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish oh my mistake then, sorry - and I've ordered a version in the UK! I'm excited (though hoping for the rest of it...)

predicted NO

@Dave_9000ish it used to give me a different message along the lines of "we have it but won't ship to you", but I'll take your word for it!