Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)
36
1.6kṀ2761
resolved Oct 4
Resolved as
50%

The Atlas Fellowship is a scholarship and in-person program that helps talented young people understand the world and change it. In 2022 and 2023, there was a combined total of approximately 230 fellows. The program has been discontinued, so there won't be further fellows in the future.

Example projects that qualify (if there is recent progress):

- https://bioteinresearch.ca/

- https://www.airbound.co/

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QY1L61TKx0

- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ecs6duLmTfyra3Gp/some-lessons-learned-from-studying-indirect-object

- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5spBue2z2tw4JuDCx/steering-gpt-2-xl-by-adding-an-activation-vector

Example projects that I find very exciting, but are slightly below the threshold for the purpose of this market:

- Studying hard subjects in college in order to apply the skills learnt to global problems (e.g. AI safety)

- Bringing the Burkina Faso team to the International Math Olympiad for the first time

- Participating in https://arena.education/

- https://payatric.com/ (insufficient visible progress)

- Getting physical copies of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality listed on Amazon

This resolves subjectively according to my opinion. For a project to count, the Atlas Fellow needs to be working on it actively with a significant time commitment and visible recent progress at the time of resolution (1 Oct 2024); it is not sufficient for them to have previously worked on it but then completed or abandoned it.

I may place trades in this market. I promise to try really hard to resolve this according to my best judgment, rather than what maximizes my Mana income. If you would be more likely to trade in this market if I didn't, please let me know in the comments and I'll reconsider.

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