I guess if AP calls the race but the GOP refuses to seat the winners this still resolves in the Democrats favor.

@JimAusman /MichaelBlume/resolves-january-31-will-the-senate

I think Manifold misinformed me about what the price would be if I sold all my shares just now. Probably lost a few thousand mana on that :/

Will be interesting to see what happens in the elections in Hungary this weekend. Very similar set of political circumstances: unpopular proto-fascist leader facing election in a nominally democratic country. My hunch is that Orban and his party wind up "winning" despite the odds in the same way that the GOP will maintain control of all three branches of government in the US in Nov.

@KenRiley a notable difference is that Fidesz has been in power continuously since 2010

@SaviorofPlant This cuts both ways, however: both more time to become unpopular and more time to take control of the machinery of elections. Based on early returns this will be a fascinating test case because early reporting is from urban areas where Tisza is strongest and as of now (21:30 Budapest time) they have a big lead. Rural areas, which favor Fidesz, will report slowly and in lots of precincts because of Fidesz's very effective gerrymandering. No doubt Bannon et al are treating this as a test run for a lot of things in the US in November.

@KenRiley Delighted to have been wrong on this one. May it be a harbinger of things to come in the US.

Republican trifecta is at 20% on Kalshi and 10% here. Manifolders are too sanguine about the possibility of shenanigans.

@JimAusman or Kalshi just has more dumb money from magats

@JimAusman kalshi now has it at 38%

@SaviorofPlant I think you mean D House and Senate, but yeah. 40% now.

@JimAusman oh i completely misread your original comment LOL

I ma be missing something, but why are answers with a D president after 2026 not resolved? A line of succession down to the house speaker and the house speaker is a Democrat?

@Pjfkh I don't think the interface allows resolving a single option to NO, though perhaps I'm missing something

@JonasVollmer you’re not missing anything.

@Pjfkh Pretty simple: House majority flips by some republicans switching to the democrats. They then elect a new democratic speaker. Finally Trump and Vance resign, pass away, or are removed from office. All this has to happen prior to the 2026 elections. This seems fairly unlikely, but not impossible.

Senate control follows VP in the event of a tie, I assume?

@EvanDaniel I don't know what's reasonable here and am hesitant to spend a lot of time on this. If others want to weigh in and vote on the comments with likes, I'm happy to choose whichever option seems most reasonable!

@JonasVollmer I’d argue for 50/50

@JonasVollmer usually "control" is defined based on including the VP, because they get a tie breaking vote. So with 50+VP and a party line vote, they can win anything that comes to a majority vote.

• Central Bankers

• CIA

• Deep State

@Bayesian @brod do either of you have an active bot interested in tailing polymarket prices? this market is quite out of whack with poly atm

@Ziddletwix I only tail polymarket when polymarket doesn't disagree with Semiotic Rivalry. @AmmonLam Might be interested though

@Bayesian hah i had the same thought, already msged

@Ziddletwix is your hope that someone takes that entire order and buys your shares too for a profit? lol

probably? this isn't a market i particularly feel like trading on so i'd offload if that's ez but if not i can just hold it as a bet