Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
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47
แน€53k
2027
1.1%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
23%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
0.8%
D President, R Senate, R House
0.3%
D President, D Senate, R House
1.6%
D President, R Senate, D House
2%
R Pres, D Senate, D House
71%
R President, R Senate, D House
0.3%
R President, D Senate, R House
  • Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."

  • [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."

  • This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.

  • President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.

  • House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

  • Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

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bought แน€750 D President, R Senat... NO

My probabilities (pres/senate/house):

DDD: 5%

DDR: 3%

DRD: 7%

DRR: 30%

RDD: 10%

RDR: 0%

RRD: 31%

RRR: 13%

bought แน€50 R President, R Senat... YES

My biggest high-level disagreement with the market (or at least with the market before I traded) is that I think that there's a 75% chance that the House will be controlled by the opposite party of the president. The House is very likely to be close in 2024 and there's been a swing in the House against the incumbent party in nearly all recent midterm elections.

my rough probs conditioned on each candidate winning (pres-senate-house):

Kamala:

D R R 75% (~37.5 unconditional)

D D R 5% (2.5)

D R D 15% (7.5)

D D D 5% (2.5)

Trump:

R D D 25% (12.5)

R D R 5% (2.5)

R R D 50% (25)

R R R 20% (10)

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